The Presidential Election of 2016

   Herewith, my take on the forthcoming election, for what it’s worth. Unless Hillary’s reported illness gets worse and keeps her from campaigning, I expect her to become the next president of the United States. The recent debate and the many comments about it confirm that conclusion, though of course not as a sure thing.

   What then? I think Mrs. Clinton will be an OK chief executive, stable and task-minded and surely always informed and hardworking. She may be subject to periodic bursts of “inspiration” that will upset the applecart, but not too much. I’d expect her to be a better chief executive than W’s father, and with policies much more to my liking.

   Alas, Mrs. Clinton will suffer from sullen obstructionism as did Obama. There is a significant wing of the establishment that is opposed to a woman president almost as much as to an African American one. We can live with that (we have to), since, ironically, the country is not about to become as enlightened as Germany (Merkel) or Britain (Thatcher), even if it has risen to the level of South Africa (Mandela).

   But what if these speculations turn out to be mistaken? Many things can prevent Hillary from being the next president. There are too many potential obstacles to list, even plausible ones. That would make Donald Trump Obama’s successor and the designated forty-fifth president of the United States. Granted that sounds terrible—to me and to at least a portion of my readers—it is not at all impossible. (I remember staying up most of the night only to find out the next day who won when Dewey ran against Truman in 1948. That might well have gone the other way.)

   So, Trump wins. What’s next?  To begin with, there is some probability—not high but not trivial—that “the Donald” will not actually serve in the job he has been campaigning for. If that outcome seems downright weird to followers of US politics, welcome to 2016! Clearly, Trump has “private” motives for running—win or lose. He prides himself on being a top businessman and, indeed, his campaigning has filled his hotels.

   I assume, though I am not sure, that when a person actually elected to be president is not sworn in to serve, his vice presidential partner inherits that role. If so, we would have Mike (not a name his parents gave him) Pence become president elect. During his stint as a Representative, Pence’s reactionary record was totally unblemished: not a whiff of liberalism or open-mindedness to be detected in his dozen years in Congress. He would make W look to be downright progressive. Pence’s record as governor of Indiana is equally consistent in its right-wing actions. If he were to become president, he would make Harding, Coolidge and Hoover look like leftists. But while Pence would resemble that trio from early of the last century—he’d be like them only more so.

   But there will have been no president like Donald Trump, should he follow Obama into the White House. I’m not an American historian, so I don’t in fact know that no previous holder of the land’s highest office was an uncontrolled eccentric (to grasp at a euphemism). But I do know, if there was such a one, he will not also have had the phenomenal power of 21^st century technology. He would be a Goliath with a machine gun. Unthinkable.

   Let us fervently hope—and of course vote—that it remains unthought because it does not happen because Hillary Clinton comes out in front. I don’t know that I have what it takes to return to this subject if Trump is the winner on November 8.